The Hurricane Forecast Is Quiet. Our Preparedness Shouldn't Be.
The Hurricane Forecast Is Quiet. Our Preparedness Shouldn’t Be.
It’s peak hurricane season and (fingers-crossed), we’re on the cusp of breaking a big record. We’re about to set the record for the latest first hurricane formation of the season since the satellite era. What does this mean? While the Atlantic has produced several tropical storms, we’ve had zero hurricanes to date.
But don’t go celebrating just yet. The data is a little more nuanced (isn’t it always?).
The Data Tells a More Complicated Story
Earlier this Spring, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted this hurricane season would be below normal due to a variety of factors, primarily El Niño, which can often suppress hurricanes. Not to get too sciencey, but here it goes: El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, and this makes it more difficult for tropical storms to organize and intensify into hurricanes.
Here’s where it gets complicated. Data from Climate Central reports that hurricanes are getting more intense, bringing heavier rainfall and higher storm surges when they make landfall.
According to Climate Central, from 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones experienced an increase in maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph to 58 mph.
So while this season is hopefully a respite, hurricanes, on average, are becoming stronger. NOAA is also cautioning that other oceanic and atmospheric conditions could support hurricane development, and seasonal forecasts cannot determine where, when and how intensely individual storms will make landfall. While helpful, these seasonal forecasts can only provide a guide, and often the most accurate forecasts are in the days leading up to the storm, with little time for emergency management to properly prepare unless already integrated within the emergency preparedness plan.
Hurricane Helene offered a powerful reminder of that reality. In 2024, Asheville, North Carolina, a city 250 miles from the coast, was devastated by Hurricane Helene. The community was only given a few days' notice, and even then it was hard to believe a hurricane could impact an inland, mountain community to such a severe degree.
Prepare for the Impact, Not Just the Storm
For emergency managers, that means looking beyond the forecast and planning for the cascading effects of a major storm. And what’s at the heart of emergency preparedness?
Power. Energy. Electricity.
As hurricanes continue to intensify, our aging utility grid is becoming increasingly vulnerable, making emergency preparedness for power and communications continuity more critical than ever. So the question isn't if our communities will face more extreme weather—it's how we prepare for it.
Hurricane Ian: A Real-World Lesson in Energy Resilience
Without power, nearly every aspect of disaster response is compromised, from emergency management and communications to heating, cooling and access to essential services. That makes reliable, independent power a critical component of emergency management.
Hurricane Ian demonstrated what this can look like in practice. In 2022, Ian devastated Southwest Florida, including Fort Myers. In response, Comcast deployed Sesame Solar Mobile Nanogrids to provide reliable, off-grid, self-generating power while crews worked to restore communications and the electrical grid. The systems supported emergency communications and field operations, as well as showers, laundry, restrooms, charging stations and Wi-Fi. Approximately 300 emergency responders, employees and residents were supported each day during the recovery effort.
So what’s the takeaway? Emergency power planning needs to go beyond simply having a generator on standby. During a major disaster, fuel supplies and transportation routes can be disrupted, making conventional generators difficult to sustain. Self-generating, mobile power provides another layer of resilience, helping communities keep critical operations, communications and essential services running when the grid and traditional fuel supply chains cannot.
